If you can look into the seeds of time
And say which grain will grow and which will not
Speak then to me – Macbeth (I, iii)

Business development, financial investment, regulation, and government policy making rely on establishing representative benchmarks, and accurately forecasting their trajectories over time or in relation to other variables. This can be challenging when the environment is turbulent, and benchmark trajectories display erratic behaviour.

Under such conditions traditional forecasting methods and trend projections involving statistical analysis of historical data, fundamental analysis, or expert judgment can be unreliable. This is an increasingly important issue as Globalisation, with its inherent linkages and dependencies can lead to turbulence or chaotic conditions.

It would be appropriate to gain an understanding of the various decision making models that have been developed in order to possibly predict the future with a semblance of accuracy while still leaving a large portion of it up to the unknown. The article in the 4th anniversary edition of Communique covers the intricacies of the World 3 Model, Mental Model, Balance Score Card Model, iThink™ model amongst many others and tries to chart a rational middle ground between overt optimism and callous cynicism.